The metric is known as a death cross, and it appears if an asset's average price over the last 50 days falls below its 200-day moving average, indicating that its momentum is declining.
Following one of the most difficult periods in Bitcoin history, holders of the largest digital currency are now confronted with an alarming technical price pattern with a name that suggests more agony is on the way.
The metric, known as a death cross, appears when an asset's average price over the last 50 days falls below its 200-day moving average, indicating that its momentum is declining. According to Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics, while it hasn't happened yet for Bitcoin, it appears to be on track to do so later this week.
Bitcoin rose 2.6 percent to roughly $42,813 as of 2:44 p.m. in New York, escaping the death cross for another day. It had only experienced three up days since the new year began until Tuesday. Ether, the second-largest digital coin by market capitalization, appears to be on the verge of forming a death cross, despite trading higher on Tuesday to roughly $3,233.
"The history is pretty mixed," Juthica Chou, head of OTC options trading at Kraken, said on Bloomberg's "QuickTake Stock" show, "which is no surprise given that some of the macro background is effecting price action, but we've seen a significant bounce over the last 24 hours." "And I believe the fundamentals are still quite robust," he adds.
Prior to Tuesday's reprieve, cryptocurrencies had been under pressure in recent weeks, with Bitcoin falling more than 30% from its November peak of almost $69,000. The latest decline in digital assets comes as expectations build that policymakers will start raising interest rates as soon as March — and it's just one of several moves they'll take to remove liquidity. Speculative investments lose their allure in such a climate. Only 5% of JPMorgan Chase & Co. customers believe Bitcoin will reach $100,000 by the end of 2022.
Although the indication is intended to be gloomy, Bitcoin's track record with death-cross formations is mixed. It created the ominous-sounding pattern in June of last year, and another one in March 2020 proved no obstacle to profits, as it turned higher and formed a golden cross (when the pattern is reversed) two months later. However, a death cross in November 2019 resulted in the coin's price falling a month later.
"Some say it's bearish, but for Bitcoin, just about every previous death cross or golden cross, along with any other indication under the sun, has proven to be a good buying opportunity for everyone who entered before 2021," Greenspan added.